Officially, the Australian remains a Formula 1 driver with RB, though it’s generally accepted that he competed for the last time in the Singapore Grand Prix.

It’s expected, though unconfirmed, that Liam Lawson will replace Ricciardo from the United States Grand Prix next month.

The New Zealander has been on the sidelines since last season, when he impressed during a five-race cameo in place of the injured Ricciardo.

It’s believed he now features heavily in Red Bull’s future planning; both short-term and beyond, a point hinted at by Horner in Marina Bay.

“We’ve now got a period of time where we’ll evaluate all of the relevant performances of the drivers,” Horner said when asked about Ricciardo’s immediate future.

“It’s a natural break in the season to reflect on that.

“And there’s a bigger picture, obviously, beyond Daniel. He’s just one part of the jigsaw.”

Red Bull fields four cars in Formula 1; two with Red Bull Racing and two with RB.

It also has a medium-term problem to solve with half of its driving roster aging and Yuki Tsunoda is expected to depart when the power unit relationship with Honda concludes at the end of next season.

There remain question marks over Max Verstappen’s continuation with the organisation, despite holding a contract through to the end of 2028.

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Given Ricciardo was overlooked as a replacement for Sergio Perez at Red Bull Racing at the midseason break, it follows that the 35-year-old no longer features in the brand’s longer-term planning.

As such, it makes sense to replace him with a driver that does, even if making the change mid-season is considered harsh on the eight-time race winner.

Such a move brings Lawson into play with six races remaining this season, and affords Red Bull the opportunity to assess his potential on more than a race-by-race basis, as was the case in his stint last year.

Behind Lawson in the Red Bull system is Isack Hadjar, who sits second in the Formula 2 championship in his second season. F2 is typically a two-year program.

The 19-year-old is already on the F1 radar and has been used during Free Practice 1 sessions this year given Lawson is no longer eligible for them.

His future almost certainly also features in Horner’s jigsaw, with seemingly three options for the Frenchman in 2025; promotion to Formula 1, a year in Super Formula (as Lawson did last year), or a year on the sidelines (as Lawson has done this year) – a third year in F2 makes no sense.

It’s not unimaginable that the early promotion of Lawson is with a view towards Hadjar, and potentially opening a berth for him at RB next year.

That relies on Lawson impressing such that he warrants promotion to Red Bull Racing for 2025 in place of Sergio Perez who, though he has a contract for next season, is believed to have tripped a clause courtesy of his form slump that would allow for his replacement.

That would also open the door for Arvid Lindblad, who will race in F2 next season, to slot in to replace Tsunoda for 2026.

It’s a complicated puzzle, with more than one moving part, but in that context it makes sense why harsh decisions have to be made.